By 2050, back pain prevalence is projected to increase by 36.4%, with the largest increase occurring in Asia and Africa.
In 2020, 619 million people worldwide suffered from back pain.
By 2050, it is projected that 843 million people will fall into this category.
Risk factors include work-related ergonomic factors, obesity and smoking.
Research shows that back pain increases with age, with 85 being the peak age at which people are affected.
Globally, back pain is more prevalent in women than men across all age groups.
The regions with the highest incidence of back pain are Central and Eastern Europe and Australia.
The increase in back pain cases will be driven by population growth, except in Asia and Latin America, where aging populations will be the main driver.
New research shows that back pain remains a leading cause of disability worldwide. In 2020, 619 million people suffered from back pain; this number is expected to rise to 843 million over the next 30 years. The peer-reviewed study published today in The Lancet Rheumatology was conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Older people are particularly at risk, as research shows that the prevalence of back pain increases with age, with the peak age of affected people being 85 years old.
“From a healthcare perspective, most national clinical practice guidelines lack specific recommendations on how to care for older people with back pain, who are the most vulnerable people to this condition,” said lead author Professor Manuela Ferreira, professor in the Sydney School of Musculoskeletal Health at the University of Sydney and Global Burden of Disease study collaborator.
Globally, low back pain caused a total of 69 million years lived with disability (YLDs) in 2020. Years lived with disability are years lived with less than ideal health status. Although this is a decrease as a proportion of years lived with disability from all causes since 1990, low back pain remains the leading cause of years lived with disability globally.
The main risk factors for low back pain identified in studies are smoking, obesity and occupational ergonomic factors such as repetitive fast movements and handling heavy loads at work. These risk factors account for almost 40% of years lived with disability in low back pain cases.
The number of cases of back pain varies by geographic region, cause and age. The study covers local, regional and national data in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. The countries with the highest age-standardised rates of back pain are Hungary and the Czech Republic. The lowest are Myanmar and the Maldives. The data suggests that population growth and ageing rates in all countries surveyed may have influenced the rankings.
The study predicts that by 2050, the number of people suffering from back pain will increase by 36.4% to 843 million, with the largest increase occurring in Asia and Africa. Most of the increase will be due to population growth, with ageing populations expected to be the main driver in East and South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean.
“The societal and economic impacts of back pain are enormous, including lost productivity through missed work and reliance on medications to relieve pain,” said Jamie Steinmetz, PhD, IHME’s principal research scientist. “Research indicates the need for public health prevention strategies, particularly for older adults. Among working-age people, back pain causes more people to miss work than any other chronic condition.”
The global data generated by this study may help policymakers and health care providers develop or refine prevention strategies targeting risk factors such as ergonomics, obesity and smoking.
The research was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
To request an interview with the article’s author, please email the IHME media team. [email protected] or the University of Sydney media team [email protected].
About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research institute at the University of Washington that provides rigorous, comparable measurements of the world’s most critical health problems and evaluates the strategies being used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about allocating resources to improve population health.
About the Global Burden of Disease Study
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study is the largest and most comprehensive effort to quantify health loss across places and time. It draws on the work of more than 9,600 contributors in 162 countries and territories. IHME coordinates the study.