The Dodgers (41-26) are fresh off a pretty interesting road trip, hosting the defending World Series champions Texas Rangers (31-34) for a three-game series tonight. They lost three straight games to the Pittsburgh Pirates (31-34), which wasn’t too surprising given their recent play, but they bounced back nicely to win a tough series against the New York Yankees (47-21). Texas has been hit with a number of injuries and a lack of performance from key players, so they haven’t performed as well as they hoped heading into the 2024 season. James Paxton will take the mound to face right-hander Dane Dunning. Neither team has been going according to plan this season, so both are looking to get off to a good start to get things rolling.
7:10 PM Los Angeles 2B Semien SS Betts DH Grossman (S) DH Ohtani (L) RF Garcia 1B Freeman (L) C Heim (S) C Smith LF Langford LF T. Hernandez 1B Lowe (S) 2B Lux (L) SS Duran CF Paige 3B Wenzel RF Hayward (L) CF Taveras (S) 3B Rojas P Dunning (R) P Paxton (L)
The top five in the lineup are the same as they always are against right-handed pitchers. Teoscar Hernandez finished the series strong in New York with three homers, six hits, and nine RBIs, and was named the NL Player of the Week. He was a key to the series win, and his performance was huge for this team. The lineup above him has been inconsistent, especially recently. Miguel Rojas has been great this year. He’s always been great defensively, but at 35 years old, his offensive performance seems to be improving. His 123 wRC+ is the best of his career, except for the 140 he had in the shortened 2020 season. Andy Page cost the team a few runs over the weekend with a dropped ball and two sliding errors to third base. He’s a rookie, and I don’t think he’ll make those baserunning mistakes again. There are no other realistic center field options until James Outman returns. Gavin Lux is hitting .248/.296/.350 with a wRC+ of 87 over the last seven weeks. He’s a fine second baseman, and those offensive numbers are just below average for a second baseman. The team is still hoping he can get back to his 2022 form, but so far so good.
The Rangers are leaving Josh Jung and Evan Carter, two of the best prospects in baseball. Jung was an All-Star in 2024 and finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. He looked like he was going to have a big year, but a broken wrist ended his season after just five games. Carter was great with Texas last year, posting an incredible 180 wRC+ and 1.058 OPS in 23 games. In a smaller sample size, he also had a big year in the postseason with a 155 wRC+ and .917 OPS. Those numbers have dropped to 79 homers and .633 this year, and he is currently out with a sprained back. Adolis Garcia hit 39 homers last year and was a solid right fielder, posting a 4.4 fWAR, 124 wRC+ and .836 OPS. This year, his wRC+ has dropped to 93, his OPS to .699, and his defense has also regressed. Mitch Garver played catcher and designated hitter last year, hitting 19 home runs and posting a 138 wRC+ in 87 games, but his offensive output is lacking this year. Third baseman Josh Smith has performed well in Jung’s absence, posting a 134 wRC+ and .810 OPS, but will miss the game against Paxton due to his lefty nature. Marcus Semien has played well defensively at second base, posting a 117 wRC+, but his offensive output is slightly down from 2023.
Corey Seager is day-to-day after a left hamstring issue last Wednesday. It would be very Dodgers-like to not put him on the disabled list. He has missed 31 games in 2023 with a strained left hamstring, so it seems wise not to take any risks. Plus, he had sports hernia surgery on Jan. 30, so I’m not sure why they wouldn’t give him two weeks off to get healthy. He had a .631 OPS and 80 wRC+ through March and April, but in May he had a 1.047 OPS and 181 wRC+, improving to 130 and .832 for the season. Overall, the Rangers are 23rd in wRC+ against lefties (92), but Paxton was bad, so that might offset that.
As an aside, the Dodgers have the best offense in baseball against lefty pitchers with a 132 wRC+ and .811 OPS. What kind of world do we live in?
Here’s an overall comparison of the two crimes:
The Rangers are not in great form and are missing key offensive players, while the Dodgers are in great form but have been incredibly inconsistent.
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Among the 124 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings, here’s how Dunning and Paxton compare:
In his last outing, Dunning pitched five innings against the Tigers, giving up three runs on four hits and one walk. He gave up a two-run home run to his old friend Zach McKinstry and a solo home run to Riley Green. This is the story of his season. He’s had a very strange year, striking out significantly more batters than normal with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a strikeout rate of 26.9%. His walks are up, but his batting average allowed (.199) and batting average at shortstop (.227) are both career lows. His home run/fly rate is an astounding 21.3%, the best in baseball, while the league average is 10.8%. This puts his xFIP at 3.74, 51st out of 124, but in a very reasonable range.
The Rangers plan to bolster their pitching staff in the coming months, hoping it’s not too late and they can hold onto their wild card spot until then. Tyler Murray has proven himself a reliable pitcher with three wins over the past few seasons with the Reds and Twins, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in early May 2023. The Rangers signed Murray to a two-year contract in the offseason and are hopeful he’ll return later in the season. Additionally, they will be without Jacob deGrom, who underwent Tommy John surgery last June and is due to return later this summer. Max Scherzer has also been out recovering after undergoing surgery for a herniated disk in December, but is expected to return near the end of the month.
Paxton’s last start was against Pittsburgh, where he gave up six earned runs on six hits and two walks in 1.2 innings, taking his first loss of the year. It was awful. He’s allowed 15 runs in his final 15.1 innings, including two multiple home runs in that span. His underlying numbers have finally caught up with him, and if he performs as well as those stats suggest, he’s on the edge of being a major league starter. Bobby Miller is on the way, and Clayton Kershaw is likely to return sometime in July. Paxton is eating innings, which is helpful, but he needs to get better.
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In other news:
#Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts said Bobby Miller will make one more start as he works through rehab. Follow On Thursday, if all goes well, it will be his last.
Clayton Kershaw is also scheduled to play in a simulated game at Dodger Stadium this week.
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) June 11, 2024
Yet more good news for Miller and Kershaw.
Dalton Rushing will likely be promoted to Triple-A soon, but Hunter Feduccia is there too, having never gotten a chance in the majors.
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First pitch will be at 7:10pm PDT on SNLA.